Aboi's Updates For May 2013 (GE special edition)

Here's the link for the previous month's market sense: Aboi's Updates for April 2013

For those who find it hard to follow I suggest reading through my previous posting on how I am using technical indicators as a trend seeker.

1. First Attempt on Tech Analysis Part 1
2. First Attempt on Tech Analysis Part 2

It was another AWESOME MONTH for Bursa and more importantly for my portfolio. First let's talk about Bursa. It ended the week with a high of 1711 points on the back of election fever and encouraging global news with better than expected job creation in the US and quick resolution Cyprus banking institutions. On my last posting I showcased another VSA testing on low volume which worked again and that some upside left lead to a 1711 point closure. Sad to say the feel good factor is GOING TO END. This coming week and likely for the rest of 2013 will a be TEST OF PATIENCE for many investors: retail and institutional. Having seen the political development over the last 2 weeks (not just mainstream media/alternative news portals/social media, I was on the ground too having attended 4 ceramahs and 3 so called "SAPU Malaysia" dinners, sorry I meant 1Msia). A summary of my thoughts by order of likelihood outcome of the coming 13th general election:-

Pakatan wins with majority of less than 10 seats:  1600-1800 (45%)
Pakatan wins with a majority of more than 10 seats: 1600-1850 (30%)

BN forms new govt but smaller majority than 2008:  1650-1750 (20%)
BN forms new govt with a bigger majority than 2008: 1650-1780 (5%)

Thus I am setting two support lines for two scenarios. Support line 2 at 1600 for knee-jerk reaction of a Pakatan win but with a more sustainable long term rally due to an expected better governance and less backdoor deals. Support line 1 at 1655 if BN retains their dominance and smaller rally because there is nothing NEW to be expected. Second my portfolio grew by another RM5000. This helped push my TWRR from 8.52% to 9.81%. As usual AMP Capital has good piece of information (freely available, no sign ups) on weekly global market & global economic update. It is usually updated every Sunday night so go read it when you have the time.

Portfolio composition. Equities 50%, Mixed Assets 15%, REITs 10%, Bonds 5% and Cash 20%.
Targets for returns p.a. Equities type 12%, Mixed Assets 8%, REITs 6%, Bonds 5% and Cash 3.75%.

Notes
*Income distribution of HwangDBS Select Income Fund 0.5 sen per unit

Comments
#1 No change to Aboi's rating thus far. 
#2 Bought 3200 units of Supermx shares at RM1.89 each as reflected on the table above.
#5 Portfolio target for third year @ RM128k for April 2013 and fourth year @ RM140k for April 2014. Third year target EXCEEDED!

Below here I dedicate a special feature just because of election. In the event that Pakatan forms the new govt (which is 75% likely) some sectors/industry will be scrutinized. The market should expect monopolies and concessions to come under review. I am NOT asking you to sell in a hurry but you at least OUGHT TO TAKE NOTE. There are likely 50+ GLCs in our Bursa which I cannot completely recall all of them. Just a list of major ones here:
TNB: As PR has plans to cut electricity tariffs. Stocks linked to our PM Najib: CIMB, PNB and Khazanah linked shares. Astro, DRB-Hicom, Maxis, MMC, Padiberas, Tradewinds, Gamuda, IJM, YTL and its related shares, Berjaya group of stocks and shares, FGV (Felda), Plus Expressways and all other listed highway related concessionaires. Construction related stocks will likely decline if Pakatan wins.

Good things to hold now (defensive stocks):
Consumer related stocks, REITs and some neutral banking stocks. I am also likely to hunt for good deals post GE13; Digi and a new bond fund. As you can see my portfolio consists of safe stocks/funds so there are no changes needed coming GE 13. Salam UBAH! Remember to cast your vote early (8.00 AM) on 5.5.2013!

Disclaimer: The reports, analysis and recommendations in this blog are solely my personal views. I do not link to any investment body or company. As such, I will not be responsible of any of your investment decision. Consult your investment adviser or come to your own conclusions before making any investment decision.

Parliament Is Dissolved, Finally!

Make sure you read this too!! Parliament Dissolved – Next, Psychological Warfare. 

Here's the interactive map of GE12's results: 12th MALAYSIAN GENERAL ELECTION

Assuming we go to the polls at the end of April, I have updated my countdown timer to the 27th of April 2013! Ini kalilah....

Taken from: http://abrahampenrose.wordpress.com

~themalaysianinsider.com~ KUALA LUMPUR, April 3 — The Dewan Rakyat has been dissolved, Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak announced during a live television broadcast today, paving the way for the 13th general election. The prime minister said he met with the Yang Di-Pertuan Agong this morning and received His Majesty’s consent to dissolve Parliament. It is understood that 11 state assemblies will also be dissolved today and tomorrow to facilitate the general election. The Negri Sembilan state assembly was dissolved automatically on March 27 while Sarawak had its state election in April 2012.

The last general election was on March 8, 2008 but Najib, who took office exactly four years ago today, has taken his time to dissolve Parliament. “If I was the prime minister, I would have called for elections last year. All this waiting... one month, two months, three months... it just never stops,” Najib’s mentor and former prime minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad told a news conference on March 27. Najib is the longest-serving prime minister without a personal mandate, eclipsing his father Tun Abdul Razak Hussein who served as Malaysia’s second PM from September 22, 1970 to Election Day on August 24, 1974.

The EC will meet in the next few days to set the dates for nominations and polling that must he held within 60 days of the commission receiving the notices of dissolution from the state legislative assemblies that have yet to be dissolved. Politicians from the ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) and opposition Pakatan Rakyat (PR) are fighting for 222 parliamentary seats and 505 state seats in Election 2013, which The Malaysian Insider understands will be held within the month. A source had disclosed that there will be a greater number of new faces although Najib, who is also BN chairman, is expected to retain some veterans for continuity, especially those who scored well in the government annual report card he had announced on March 19.

The 59-year-old whose personal approval rating has remained above 65 per cent, has been on a whirlwind circuit around the country in the past few months to drum up support for his BN coalition in the run-up to election. He has trumpeted his government’s transformative achievements over the past three years and doled out money to diverse demographic groups in various cash schemes to aid some five million families feeling the global economic pinch. The move has been criticised as an attempt to sway voters for the upcoming general election, including the controversial remark by Kelantan Mentri Besar Datuk Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat who likened it to feeding livestock to garner support.

Analysts have pointed out that the initiatives under the Economic Transformation Programme and Government Transformation Programme contributed to Malaysia’s economic growth rate of 6.4 per cent in the fourth quarter of last year versus the same period in 2011. Some 13.3 million voters, including 3,000-odd abroad, have registered to vote in what is set to be the country’s most-anticipated and closely-fought general elections. BN officials privately predict that the ruling coalition could regain its two-thirds supermajority by winning as many as 160 seats although the PR pact led by Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim is also confident of a victory. Independent surveys show that BN could scrape through with 117 federal seats to PR’s 105. ~end of themalaysianinsider.com~

Aboi's Updates For April 2013

Here's the link for the previous month's market sense: Aboi's Updates for Feb\Mar 2013

For those who find it hard to follow I suggest reading through my previous posting on how I am using technical indicators as a trend seeker.

1. First Attempt on Tech Analysis Part 1
2. First Attempt on Tech Analysis Part 2

It was a BRILLIANT MONTH for Bursa as well as my portfolio. First Bursa indeed climbed back from the shock correction and managed to break my resistance line of 1655 and closed on its 12-week high. Seems that election is really around the corner now! I say again the FEEL GOOD FACTOR :) Having seen the first VSA testing on low volume worked really well, I see the same signature again just a day ago. With the RSI being not too overvalued I think it is decent to say there is still SOME UPSIDE LEFT for a last roar before the General Election begins. Thus I'll pay attention for my new resistance line of 1680 and 1700 (yes testing the all time high, be brave!) and new support line of 1650. Second my portfolio grew by nearly RM6000. This helped push my TWRR from 7.07% to 8.52% but still 0.30% short of my target. That's fine it was a good month anyway. Meanwhile this article is a good piece of information on weekly market & economic update. You can more from AMP Capital. It is FREE!!

Portfolio composition. Equities 50%, Mixed Assets 15%, REITs 10%, Bonds 5% and Cash 20%.
Targets for returns p.a. Equities type 12%, Mixed Assets 8%, REITs 6%, Bonds 5% and Cash 3.75%.

Notes
*Boustead REIT: Final Income Distribution of 5.5 sen per share

Comments
#1 No change to Aboi's rating thus far. 
#2 Change in Aboi's Fair Value as I have changed method from DCF model to PEGGY method due to time constraints. Will post about this at a later time.
#3 Changed Asia Quantum (Equity fund) to Kenanga Growth Fund (Equity fund).
#4 Bond fund would change as well due to fund already achieved approved fund size and I cannot buy any more units :( Will do it by next month.
#5 Portfolio target for third year @ RM128k for April 2013 and fourth year @ RM140k for April 2014. And yes I have achieved my third year target!

From the last update: "Yes this is a BIG CHANGE in direction. With 8.8% RM100k can only grow to RM1.255 million in 30 years. One cannot strike to have 15% per annum to grow to RM5 million in 30 years if the portfolio is NO LONGER purely equities. Though RM1.25 million may not seem to be enough for retirement, we have other sources of funds e.g. EPF, endowment/surrender value policies, other assets e.g. properties. I placed a lot of thought in this for the last 2 weeks. It is difficult to have purely equities in one's portfolio yet alone risky as we age older. Should I change my blog description? I don't know yet". I didn't have time to think about it yet, save it for next month.

Disclaimer: The reports, analysis and recommendations in this blog are solely my personal views. I do not link to any investment body or company. As such, I will not be responsible of any of your investment decision. Consult your investment adviser or come to your own conclusions before making any investment decision.